My Two Cents on the City of New Orleans Mayoral Runoff Election

Al has already chimed in that Mitch Landrieu will win big in the mayoral runoff election. Here's what I'm figuring:

1. The runoff will become EXTREMELY racially polarized, even more than now.
2. More displaced voters (i.e. minorities) will vote in the runoff.
3. Nagin reportedly has money, and incumbents often pick up votes in the runoff that you normally wouldn't expect.
3. Let's give 75% of the votes that went for Forman, Couhig and Piggy Wilson to Landrieu (which could be a VERY conservative estimate).
4. Let's give 65-70% of the rest to Nagin (the same proportion by which he beat Landrieu in the primary).

By these very conservative estimates, which take into account what I expect to be a pro-Nagin bump from now until then:

Landrieu would barely win 51-49%.

I wouldn't put reinforcements on the doors quite yet.