22 April 2006

Krewe Char de Guerre/TBofNO City of New Orleans Mayoral Primary Election Predictions

For what it's worth, following are some percentage predictions for today's mayoral primary by Krewe Char de Guerre/The Third Battle of New Orleans contributors. A review of both the 2002 primary and runoff election can be seen here. The total amount of votes in the 2002 mayoral primary was about 134,000. It will be interesting to see how the turnout in today's primary compares to four years ago.

5:15pm UPDATE: According to WWL TV, 16,691 absentee ballots were requested and 9,209 of those were returned and officially cast. Additionally, 20,409 "early" ballots were cast. Using the 134,000 number of total votes in the 2002 primary, the cast absentee ballots would represent 7% of the total votes and the "early" ballots would represent an additional 15%. Combined that would account for almost 1/4 the total vote if that 134k total number of votes is duplicated in today's 2006 primary.

Seymour D. Fair:
Nagin 30%
Landrieu 28%
Forman 19%
Couhig 8%
Boulet 6%
Others 6%
Wilson 3%

Al Scramuzza:
Landrieu 33%
Nagin 30%
Forman 22%
Couhig 7%
Boulet 5%
Others 3%

Sen. John Blutarsky:
Landrieu 25%
Nagin 20%
Forman 20%
Couhig15%
Boulet 10 %
Watson 5%
Wilson 2%
Others 3%

Hollis P. Wood:
Landrieu 27%
Nagin 25%
Forman 17%
Couhig 13%
Boulet 7%
Others 6%
Wilson 3%
Watson 3%

NOLAgirl:
Landrieu 27%
Nagin 23%
Forman 20%
Couhig 15%
Boulet 8%
Others 4%
Wilson 2%
Watson 1%



Feel free to post your prediction as a comment . . .

7 Comments:

At April 22, 2006 10:15 AM, Anonymous doug said...

It probably will result in a run-off election between Nagin and Landrieu.

 
At April 22, 2006 12:20 PM, Blogger Big__Shot said...

I'll take a crack at this. I see the conservatives coalescing around Couhig, preventing Forman from making the runoff. Meanwhile, the black vote will not be as uniform in support of Nagin as the national pundits and polls suggest. My prediction:

1) Mitch Landrieu -- 27%
2) Ray Nagin -- 21%
3) Rob Couhig-- 20%
4) Ron Forman-- 16%
5) Rev. Tom Watson -- 6%
6) Virgina Boulet -- 4%
7) The other sixteen candidates -- 4%
8) Peggy Wilson -- 2%

 
At April 22, 2006 1:47 PM, Blogger oyster said...

I agree with Big Shot, but I don't think Couhig will surpass Forman (though he deserves to).

1) Mitch -- 25%
2) C. Ray -- 22%
3) Ron Forman-- 19%
4) Inconceivable-- 15%
5) Tom "I Rebuke You" Watson -- 5%
6) Virgina Boulet -- 4%
7) Peggy "crazy eyes" Wilson -- 4%
8) Manny "Chevrolet" Bruno, Kim "Dizz Knee Land" Butler, ...etc-- the remainder

 
At April 22, 2006 4:29 PM, Blogger jeffrey said...

Nagin will run first. Mitch will make short work of him in the runoff.

 
At April 22, 2006 4:50 PM, Blogger Fitch N. DarDar said...

Since I don't live there anymore, and don't know the day-to-day stuff...I say there's a big turnout and Ray wins the primary. Landrieu is second.

 
At April 22, 2006 7:22 PM, Blogger bayoustjohndavid said...

Subject to many caveats: Nagin and Landrieu both mid-twenties. Forman and Couhig both mid-teens. Watson anywhere from 5 to 15 or even 20%

Regarding the countrywide post, buried deep in today's p.A6 Picayune story on the buyout plan, you'll find that tbe finance industry wants buyout checks to be written like insurance checks-- Payable to both owner and mortgage co.

 
At April 22, 2006 11:56 PM, Blogger JasonSpalding said...

Elect Nagin to spite those that stay in New Orleans?

 

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